The set-up: Both teams have been hot. Baltimore features the league's No. 1 defense and the Chiefs have the league's No. 1 offense. Something has to give on Sunday. While KC didn't look very good on the defensive side of the ball in last week's 40-33 win at Oakland, the Chiefs have been a "different" team in front of the home town crowd. The Ravens' achilles heel has been their offensive play, especially on the road. It's difficult to win on the road at any time, but after last week's 26-16 win at Atlanta, a predictable letdown is imminent for the visitors in my opinion.

The pick: Take it for what you will as well, but Baltimore is just 2-4 ATS in its last six as a road dog in the 3.5 to seven points range, while KC is 11-6 ATS in its last 17 as a home favorite of seven points or less. Lay the points.

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