The set-up: Granted Cleveland's looked a lot better this year, but it has nothing to play for whatsoever and with an extremely satisfying 26-20 home win over Carolina last weekend, I do indeed believe this sets up as a classic letdown spot for Cleveland. The Browns average only 22.5 PPG, while allowing 25.5. Denver had won three in a row before a lacklustre 20-14 loss at San Francisco last weekend. But overall the Broncos average 22.3 PPG, while allowing just 21.7.

The pick: Take it for what you will as well, but Cleveland is still only 2-5 ATS in its last seven as a road underdog of seven points or less, while never is 3-1 ATS in its last four after a loss by six points or less. "Home cooking" is the difference here. Lay the points.

10*