The set-up: I think this one has defensive battle written all over it. UAB won the C-USA with a 10-3 record, while NIU was 8-5 overall. The Blazers ten wins were a school record and UAB got the job done with stifling defensive play. UAB has a question mark with its starting QB AJ Erdely, but the strength on offense is the run game behind Spencer Brown anyways. The UAB offense would only post 30 points four times this year, but the defense is allowing just 17.3 PPG. NIU also relies on its run game to generate offense, led by Tre Harbison. The Huskies averaged only 20.7 PPG and they allowed just 21.5.

The pick: Two defensive minded teams which rely on the run game collide in this one. Also note that UAB has seen the total go "under" the number in four of its last five then the total is set between 42.5 and 49 points, while NIU has seen the total go "under" in ten of its last 15 when the total is set in the same points range. This number is high, play the "under."

10* play