The set-up: No outright victory, but I think this one will be a lot more competitive than what this spread would suggest. I think the Wolves, who have won two straight, get caught "looking past" their lowly opponent tonight. After winning three straight, the Hawks are looking to bounce back after a loss in Indiana in their latest outing. Kent Bazemore was a standout in the setback with 32 points. The Wolves are playing great under the guidance of Derrick Rose, but note that they've been consistently inconsistent in this spot by going just 1-4 ATS this year after a blowout win of 15 points or more.

The pick: Take it for what you will as well, but ATL is already 8-5 ATS this season as a road dog in the 6.5 to 12 points range. For all the reasons listed above, play on Atlanta.

8* play