The set-up: I don't think the Pilots will score the outright upset here, but I do think they can keep this one competitive late. Fullerton won this game on the raod 76-66 last year. But Portland comes in with momentum after a 54-39 home win over Florida A&M, while Cal State comes in off a deflating 86-62 road loss to Nebraska. Overall the Pilots average 72.1 PPG and they allow 73.9, while the Titans average 73.4 PPG and allow 72.8. I think Cal State is vastly over-rated here.

The pick: Portland has performed well in this spot for bettors, going 16-8 ATS in its last 24 vs. teams with losing records and 6-2 ATS in its last eight after scoring 60 points or less in two straight games, while Cal State has struggled, going just 1-3 ATS in its last four as a home favorite in the 6.5 to nine points range. Grab the points.

8* play