The set-up: Carolina didn't put up much of a fight in a 3-1 setback on Tampa Bay last night, but the Hurricanes don't have to travel far to get back home to take on the Sabres on Friday. I think the home side got caught looking ahead to this more favorable matchup and I expect it to make the most of it after last night's sub-par showing. Despite the Sabres 5-1 win over the Devils at home last time out, they're still just 9-12 on the road, averaging 2.62 PG and allowing 2.90. The Hurricanes are 11-11 at home, averaging 2.82 GPG and allowing 2.64. Carolina had Petr Mrazek in net last night, but Curtis McElhinney will get the nod here (he's 10-6 with a 2.26 GAA on the year and 6-2 with a 2.01 GAA at home).

The pick: Take it for what you will as well but the Sabres are just 4-6 (-1.6 units) already this year after a win by two goals or more. I think McElhinney will prove to be the difference maker here. Lay it.

10* GRINDER