The set-up: Miami enters off a 111-99 home loss to the Clippers on Wednesday, while Cleveland returns home off a 123-103 road loss in Boston on Wednesday. Both teams are struggling this season, but the Cavaliers play with the added incentive of "double revenge," having dropped both previous meetings with the Heat, including a 117-92 setback in Miami in the most recent at the start of the year. Clearly the Heat are the better team, but the Cavs won't be rolling over here as they look to break their own string of futility (lost 17 of 18.)

The pick: Take it for what you will as well, but Miami is just 1-4 ATS in its last five as a road favorite in the 6.5 to 12 points range, while Cleveland is just 4-1 ATS in its last five off a road blowout loss of 20 points or more. I'm grabbing the points.

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