The set-up: The Sens will be eager to get back on track here after a listless 2-0 home loss to Detroit last time out. The Leafs could clearly care less about their rivals problems as they'll be looking to build off their commanding 6-1 home win over Anaheim. The Sens are terrible. Ottawa goaltender Craig Anderson is just 3-10 with a 4.23 GAA on the road this year. Toronto is now 16-12 at home, averaging 3.36 goals and allowing 2.68 in those contests.

The pick: I'm not going to lay this steep price on the home side, but I absolutely expect a wide open affair here. Take it for what you will as well but Ottawa has seen the total go "over" four of five this year when playing with three or more days rest and in 12 of 18 after a loss by two goals or more. Also note that the Leafs have seen the total go "over" in nine of their last 12 vs. divisional foes. This number is low, play the "over."

10* OVER