The set-up: Miami is struggling right now and I think it's ripe for the picking. The Heat have fallen into ninth spot in the East with a 25-30 record. Most recently Miami lost for a sixth time in seven games in its 103-87 setback in Denver. Overall Miami averages 105.9 PPG, while allowing 106.7. However over its last ten games Miami has posted just 103.3 points per game over its last ten. The Mavericks are looking to bounce back from a 120-104 loss to Houston. The Mavs average 108.4 PPG and they allow 108.5.

The pick: Take it for what you will as well, but Miami is already only 4-9 ATS this year after a loss by ten points or more, while Dallas is 10-3 ATS this season as a home favorite of six points or less or pick. Lay the points, expect a rout.

10* play