The Rays, off a road series win vs the Astros, seem to be emerging from their July swoon. They face the 5-5 (L10) Yankees whose record benefits from a series sweep against KC, but who have otherwise been equally unimpressive in July. Tampa's offense is starting to climb up the ladder, now 17th in offense (.241 BA, .746 OPS), while the Yankees are still near bottom-dwellers at .225 BA/.669 OPS. While neither team has excelled in July, some key features other than starting pitching favor the Rays today. Tampa is a robust 50-39 vs right-handers (44-42 Yankees) and 18-13 vs division opponents (14-19 Yankees). Looking at the starters, German has been one of the most uneven starters this season, ranging from his no-hitter in June to a 3.1 inning 10 run dog the previous game. He has been very poor in his last two starts, giving up nearly a run an inning. His first inning ERA (6.63) speaks for itself. Meanwhile Glasnow has had two wins and three two-run or less starts in his last four appearances, ending July with a 2.30 ERA and a .197 opposing batting average.

The Yankees struggle vs right-handed pitching, and Glasow in a good one. Who knows quite what to expect from German? NY has the better bullpen, but the offense remains a mystery. Glasnow has been delivering 7 inning starts in his last two games. I favor the Rays to continue in their rebuild. Take Tampa to win.