The set-up: After letting the Giants rally for three runs in the bottom of ninth last night, I think the Braves bounce back here. And after rallying for three runs in the bottom of the ninth to come from behind and steal last night's contest, I believe the home side has a predictable letdown here. The visitors hand the ball to Max Fried, while the Giants counter with Jeff Samardzija.

The pitchers: Fried (6-2, 2.86 ERA) enters off six shutout innings vs. Milwaukee on Friday and he's won each of his past two trips to the hill and three of his last four overall.

Samardzija (2-2, 3.69) gave up four runs off five hits over five innings in a win no decision to the Reds on Sunday (three solo home runs.) It was his worst start of the year.

The pick: Take it for what you will as well, but Atlanta is already 4-1 this year following a one run loss, while SF is only 10-13 at home and just 5-9 (-3.9 units) after a win by two runs or less. Great value on the hungry visiting side.

Atlanta Braves

10*