The set-up: The Braves are surging right now and I believe that trend carries over for at least one more game. Atlanta is 6-1 during its current home stand. Overall the Braves have won nine of their last ten, including a 15-1 blowout vs. the Phillies on Sunday. New York's moving in the opposite direction, most recently dropping three of four to the Cards over the weekend, going 5-5 in its last ten. The visitors hand the ball to Zack Wheeler, while the home side goes with rookie Mike Soroka.

The pitchers: Wheeler (5-4, 4.87 ERA) was blasted for nine runs off ten hits over 4 2/3's innings in a loss to the Yankees in his last start.

Soroka (7-1, 1.92) enters off his worst start of the year, giving up five runs over five innings to the Pirates, but outings like that have truly been few and far between this season and note that he's already 2-0 with a 0.73 ERA in 12 1/3's innings vs. the Mets this year.

The pick: Take it for what you will as well, but New York is just 1-9 (-7.6 units) this season as a road dog in the +125 to +175 range, while Atlanta is 14-6 (+4 units) as a favorite of -150 or higher. Lay the price with confidence.

Atlanta Braves (vs. NY Mets)

10* play