The set-up: Lucas Giolito has been superb for the White Sox this year, but all good things must come to an end. The Cubs' Jon Lester has has an up and down start to 2019, but I think he'll settle down here in front of the home town crowd.

The pitchers: Giolito (10-1, 2.22 ERA) has been on absolute fire this year and its difficult to say anything negative about him at all. I simply feel that his early numbers are unsustainable and regression is imminent. Also note that he's just 1-1 with a ballooned 5.84 ERA in two career starts vs. the Cubs.

Lester (5-5, 4.08) has struggled of late, but he'll look to bounce back against a team he's had plenty of success against, going 9-6 with a 3.99 ERA over 17 career games vs. the White Sox.

The pick: Take it for what you will as well, but the White Sox are just 5-8 as a road dog in the +100 to +150 range this year, while the Cubs are 21-9 as a home favorite. Look for The Friendly Confines to ruin Giolito's hot run. Lay the price.

Chicago Cubs

10* play