The set-up: No outright upset, but I think it'll be much more competitive than what this spread would suggest. Miami Ohio finished 6-6 SU last year, while the Hawkeyes were 9-4. Miami Ohio though finished strong and it's got a versatile offense which averaged 202 passing yards and 202 rushing yards per game (in eight conference games.) The Hawkeyes averaged 32.7 PPG vs. conference foes, while conceding only 20.6.

The pick: Miami Ohio though is a sharp 6-2 ATS in its last eight as an underdog, while Iowa is just 2-6 ATS in its last eight non-conference home games as a favorite of 21 points or more. This spread is a little large, grab the points.

Miami (OH) 8* play