The set-up: No outright upset, but I do think that the stage is set for a "nail-biter" in this one. Denver's 0-2 and desperate. The stats for teams that start the year 0-3 are downright terrible, so for all intents and purposes, the Bronco's entire season is on the line this week. Green Bay on the other hand enters on the other end of the spectrum by starting 2-0. The Packers were terrible defensively last year, but so far this season they've allowed just 9.5 points per game.

The pick: But I think Green Bay's early defensive numbers need to be taken with a grain of salt. Joe Flacco isn't the QB he once was, but his veteran experience in this situation is actually a strength for Denver going in. Denver lost in the final seconds to the Bears last week (16-14), but it was under some suspect calls from the refs, which prompted Broncos' head coach Vic Fangio to remark: "You can't control the officiating or bad calls." Note that GB is just 2-6-1 ATS in its last nine following an ATS win, while Denver is 11-4 ATS in its last 15 after allowing more than 150 rushing yards in its previous game. I expect this one to come down to the final moments.

8* play on Denver Broncos.