The set-up: Outright victory? Of course not. But I do think that the 4-0 Penn State Lions get caught "looking past" their lowly 1-3 opponent. The Boilermakers have struggled to this point. While they haven't played since 2016, I still think its worthy to point out that Purdue has lost eight straight in the series. After smashing Maryland 59-0 last weekend, would anyone fault the Nittany Lions for having a bit of a mental lapse vs. Purdue at home? Purdue won't be going down without a fight, last week it fell 38-31 to Minnesota.

The pick: From an overall "situational" stand point, I think this one sets up great for the hungry Boilermakers. Clearly the Nittany Lions are the "better" team, but I think this is a classic "trap." Also note that Purdue is 8-4 ATS in its last 12 as an underdog, while Penn State is only 3-4 ATS in its last seven as a favorite in the 21.5 to 31 points range. For all the reasons listed above, grab the points.

8* pick on Purdue.