The set-up: Iowa is 4-0, while Michigan is 3-1. The Hawkeyes demolished MTSU 48-3 last weekend, while Michigan rebounded from its first loss to smash Rutgers 52-0 last Saturday. This is an ultra important game for both teams and as such, I believe it's going to be decided by whichever of them has their hands on the ball last. Iowa QB Nate Stanley had 965 passing yards and eight TD's so far this year and his defense is allowing only 78 rushing yards per game. Michigan dominated last weekend because of its run game, but clearly that strategy isn't going to work this weekend.

The pick: The Hawkeyes are 9-4 ATS in their last 13 after playing a home game, while the Wolverines are a terrible 3-6 ATS in their last nine after scoring 37 points or more in their last game. While I do think the outright is possible, in the end I'll recommend to grab the points.

8* pick on Iowa.