The set-up: Both teams enter at 1-3. USF has lost two two top 25 teams in Wisconsin and SMU by a margin of 38 points. The Huskies have lost to Illinois, Indiana and UCF by an average mating of 26 points. Both teams have similar offensive and defensive numbers, which makes the home field advantage that much more important for bettors in my opinion.

The pick: USF starting QB Blake Barnett is listed as questionable as well. Additionally note that USF is just 6-12 ATS in its last 18 as a favorite, while UConn is 3-1 ATS in its last four after two straight losses by 21 points or more. I'm grabbing all these points.

8* pick on UConn.