The set-up: I think rest leads to rust for 4-1 Virginia, which had its bye week last weekend after its loss to Notre Dame. Miami Florida comes in off a 42-35 shootout loss to Virginia Tech. Note as well that this is a big time revnege game for the Hurricanes after the Hoos beat Miami 16-13 in Charlottesville. Virginia' QB Bryce Perkins was sacked eight times by the Irish and I believe the pivot will have his hands full again here as well.
The pick: This has essentially turned into a "must win" game for 2-3 Miami, which his 0-3 vs. Power 5 programs. Yes Miami spotted VT a 28-0 lead, but after that the Hurricanes completely outplayed the Hokies in last week's setback. Despite giving up 42 points to Tech (from five turnovers from the offense), the Hurricanes are STILL only allowing 21.2 PPG. Note as well that Virginia is just 1-3 ATS in its last four vs. teams with losing records, while Miami Florida is 3-1 ATS in its last seven as a home favorite of seven points or less. I think the hungrier/desperate revenge-minded home-side delivers the goods.
10* play on Miami Florida.