The set-up: It's Masahiro Tanaka vs. Zack Greinke in the opener of the ALCS and I like the home side to deliver the goods in this one.
The pitchers: Tanaka was 11-9 with a 4.45 ERA in the regular season. While he's 2-0 with a 3.18 ERA over his last three outings, note that he's 0-2 with a 6.62 ERA in seven career starts vs. the Astros, including 0-1 with a 5.73 ERA in four career matchups at Minute Maid Park.
Greinke was 18-5 with a 2.93 ERA in the regular season. He's 2-1 with a 5.29 ERA over his last three starts. He's 4-4 with a 5.05 ERA in 15 career appearances vs. the Yanks. Note that Greinke is 8-3 with a 3.42 ERA in 13 career starts at home.
The verdict: It's interesting to note that the Astros are 42-13 in their last 55 after allowing two runs or less in their previous game, while the Yanks are only 1-5 in their last six road games vs. a right-handed starter. I give Greinke the nod on the bump this evening and in my opinion, that's the difference in Game 1. All things considered, I feel that this is the very definition of "great line value."
10* PLAY-BOOK on the Houston Astros.