The set-up: It wouldn't be difficult to write a convincing argument for either team to win this game. Jack Flaherty of the Cardinals and Stephen Strasburg of the Nationals are evenly matched. I simply feel that this sets up as a natural letdown spot for the Nationals, while I look for the more "desperate" team to find a way to get the job done here.

The pick: Additionally note that the numbers work in our favor here as well, with St. Louis having gone 43-26 (+10.9 units) this season after two or more consecutive home games, while Washington is just 11-13 (-2.5 units) this season at home with a money ine in the +125 to -125 range. Essentially "do or die" for St. Louis here.

10* BLOWOUT BEATDOWN on the St. Louis Cardinals.