The set-up: This is a big game for the 2-4 Boilermakers. Iowa is 4-2, but it comes in off a humblings 17-12 home loss to Penn State. Purdue on the other hand comes in off a momentum-building 40-14 victory over Maryland, with QB Jake Plummer throwing for 420 yards and three TD's. Iowa has the fifth ranked defense in the country, but Plummer won't be shy to try and get the ball down field whenever he can. The Boilermakers' QB has seven TD's and four INT's. Overall Purdue has six receivers with over 100 yards.

The pick: Iowa' QB Nate Stanley had 286 passing yards in last week's loss, along with one TD and one INT. The Boilermakers' defensive numbers are poor, but it catches a break this week as note that the Hawkeyes have struggled in this spot for bettors, going a poor 2-6 ATS in their last eight conference contests. Conversely this is a spot which the Boilermakers have excelled in by going 12-4-2 ATS in their last 18 road games vs. a team with a winning home record. I'm grabbing the points.

8* play on Purdue.