The set-up: Do or die? Now or never? Thankfully for the Browns even if they lose this game, they still have a mathematical shot at taking out division leader Baltimore. That said, I think this one sets up well for the Browns on a number of different levels and while I'll stop short in calling for the upset, I do definitely think that the stage is set for more of a competitive battle than what this spread would suggest. First off, the Browns truly are desperate for a win here. They also come in off their bye week. The Patriots are undefeated, but they enter off the short week after destroying the Jets on Monday night. Is it possible that New England gets caught "looking past" Cleveland as well today to its matchup in Baltimore next week, before its bye the following? Anything's possible.

The pick: Additionally note that the Browns are a perfect 2-0 ATS in their last two off an upset loss as a home favorite, while the Patriots are a sub-par 4-5 ATS in their last nine as a home favorite in the 7.5 to 14 points range. In my opinion, the overwhelming situational factors working in favor of Cleveland in this one, combined with these strong ATS trends and this large line indeed make the visitors worthy of a "second look" in this particular matchup.

1* FREE PLAY on Cleveland Browns.