The set-up: Denver opened the season with four straight close losses, but then it posted back-to-back victories, before then regressing again with a 30-6 loss to KC last week. Denver's defense has been decent and I think it'll come up big here on the road.

The pick: The Colts have played to many close games as well, but after a 30-23 win over the Texans last week, I think Indy has a predictable letdown this week. The Broncos are also 4-1 ATS in their last five off a divisional contest, while the Colts are just 3-6 ATS in their last nine following a home win. I think the "hungrier" team finds a way to get the job done here. Grab the points.

8* play on the Denver Broncos.