The set-up: Louisville is 5-3 and Miami is 5-4. It's a big game, as the winner becomes bowl eligible. And as such, I don't think that the home field advantage can be overlooked as a very real deciding factor in this particular matchup. Louisville has been off since October 26th when it beat UVA 28-21. Will rest lead to rust here? The Cardinals play three of their next four on the road and I think this one sets up as a classic "trap/letdown" spot. The Cards only had 360 total yards in that victory, but the defense came up big by forcing two turnovers. In all the Cardinals average 32.8 PPG and allow 31.9.

The pick: Miami has won two straight, most recently a 27-10 victory over FSU last weekend. QB Jarren Williams now has ten TD's and three INT's on the year. The Hurricanes defense was particularly sharp though, posting a season-high nine sacks. The Hurricanes average 26.8 PPG and they allow only 18.6. Additionally note that Louisville is still just 7-14 ATS in its last 21 vs. the conference, while Miami is 5-1 ATS in its last six as a home favorite of seven points or less. For all the reasons listed above, lay the points.

8* play on Miami Florida.