The set-up: Illinois is 5-4 and MSU is 4-4. These teams are moving in opposite directions and I expect that trend to continue here. Illinois has won three straight and Michigan State has dropped three in a row. Overall the Fighting Illini look solid offensively, averaging 30 PPG, behind 169 rushing yards per contest, good enough for 69th in the country.

The pick: The Spartans on the other hand have scored just 17 points combined over their straight losses. Most recently MSU fell 28-7 to Penn State. Additionally note that Michigan State is just 2-6 ATS in its last eight following an ATS loss, while the Illini are 10-5 ATS in their last 15 after playing at home. No outright, but expect this one to come right down to the wire. Grab the points.

8* play on Illinois.