The set-up: FIU finished with a 6-6 record and finished the regular season with an OT loss to Marshall. Arkansas State finished 7-5 and closed with a loss on the road to South Alabama. Arkansas State allows 228 YPG on the ground and FIU averages 168 YPG. FIU QB James Morgan finished with 2,248 passing yards and a weak 13:3 TD:INT. Arkansas State though has a top 20 passing offense, led by freshman QB Layne Hatcher. The Panthers allow over 200 YPG rushing as well, so the Red Wolves' strong run/pass attack is going to be the difference in the end in my opinion.

The pick: Additionally note that FIU is a terrible 1-5-1 ATS in its last seven neutral site games, while Arkansas State is 6-2 ATS in its last eight following an ATS loss. I have a hard time seeing the Panthers keeping pace down the stretch vs. a Red Wolves offense which averages 36.7 PPG. Lay the points.

8* play on Arkansas State.