The set-up: Marshall finished 8-4 overall, including 2-2 in non-conference play. Its two win were over Ohio (33-31) and VMI, while it lost to Boise State (14-7) and Cincinnati (42-17.) Marshall won this bowl 38-20 last year, but I think it takes a step back here. Overall the Herd average 24.8 PPG and allow 23.1.

The pick: UCF lost 27-24 to Cincinnati, but it finished 9-3 overall. The Knights average a whopping 43 PPG, while conceding just 22.8. Marshall has struggled in this spot for bettors as well, both over the long and short-term, going just 2-4 ATS in its last six after a win by six points or less, including only 1-2 ATS this year. Conversely, UCF has been money in the bank in this position by going 8-3 ATS in its last 11 as a favorite in the 10.5 to 21 points range, including 2-1 ATS this season. I think Marshall gets smoked on both sides of the ball from start to finish. Lay the points.

10* BLOWOUT on UCF.