The set-up: I'm not calling for an outright upset, but with nothing to loe, I like Oklahoma to keep this one a lot more competitive than what this spread would suggest. Oklahoma is in its third playoff in a row and it's done it with three different QB's. This is a team which won't be intimidated in the "big moment." Jalen Hurts is a legit NFL prospect and I look for him to go down fighting. Ed Orgeron and QB Joe Burrow come into this game with an unblemished 13-0 record so far. In four of their last five games they've scored at least 46 points. But Hurts has the ability to keep this one close in my opinion.

The pick: Oklahoma has been fantastic in this spot as wel lfor bettors, going 3-1 ATS in its last four as an underdog and 7-2 ATS in its last nine non-conference games, while LSU is just 1-3 ATS in its last four after scoring 35 points or more in a win over a conference rival. Burrow has been amazing. The Tigers have a great defense as well. But the long lay off is going to cause some issues with chemistry in my opinion. I think the Sooners' overall experience in this big game pays dividends for the team here and helps in keeping this one much closer than expected. Grab the points.

10* BOWL GAME OF THE YEAR on Oklahoma.