The set-up: Louisville finished second behind Clemson in the ACC Atlantic at 7-5. After three straight victories it dropped its finale 45-13 to Kentucky. The road to this bowl was more difficult for Mississippi State though, which finshed 6-6, including a close one in its finale vs. Ole Miss to finally become eligible. The Cards like to run the ball, but expect to see a heavy dose of QB Micale Cunningham, as the Bulldogs are allowing 241.3 passing yards per game. Mississippi State likes to run the ball as well, averaging 226.9 YPG and while the Cardinals have struggled against the run this year, Louisville isn't going to have to worry about much of a passing attack this evening, as the Bulldogs are outside the Top 100 in that category, averaging 176 passing YPG.

The pick: Note as well that Mississippi State is just 1-4 ATS in its last five as a neutral site favorite and only 1-4 ATS in its last five following an ATS victory, while Louisville is 3-1 ATS already this season after allowing 37 points or more in its previous outing. I'm grabbing the points.

8* BLOWOUT on Louisville.