The set-up: I think 12-2 Dayton gets caught "looking past" lowly 3-10 St. Joe's today. Most recently Dayton got the better of La Salle 84-58. The Flyers are one of the highest scoring teams in the nation and it's difficult to say anything negative about them. I simply feel that they come in complacent here, while I believe the Hawks risk life and limb here to try and pull off the upset. Keep your eyes on Ryan Daly for the home side, he's the only Hawk to average in double digits in scoring this year.

The pick: Additionally note that Dayton is just 3-7 ATS in its last ten as a road favorite of 16.5 points or higher on the tail of a three games or more unbeaten streak, while St. Joe's is 8-3 ATS in its last 11 home games as an underdog in the 15.5 to 21.5 points range. I think the hungry home side keeps this one a lot more competitive than what this spread would suggest. Grab the points.

10* DESTRUCTION on St. Joseph's.