The set-up: This series has so far featured plenty of starting pitching talent and not much offensive action, but I think that trend finally ends in the finale of this three-game set. Sean Newcomb was 6-3 with a 3.16 ERA for the Braves last year. Note though, like the rest of the Braves' starters to open the season, Newcomb will be on a pitch count here. I think that definitely helps in our cause in pushing this one over as well.

The pick: Rick Porcello gets the nod for the home side and he was a poor 14-12 with a 5.52 ERA last year. Porcello is clearly on the downward side of his career and I think that regression is imminent this season as well. Finally note that the Mets have seen the total eclipse the posted number in seven of their last nine NL home games after playing to the "under."

8* HOME RUN CLUB play on the OVER Braves/Mets.