The set-up: Both games of yesterday's double-header went "under" the number. Double-headers this year only go seven innings, but despite that, I still think that the finale of this AL series sets up as a "slug-fest." Brady Singer (1-1, 4.50 ERA) earned a loss in his MLB debut by allowing four runs over five innings to the ChiSox, before then allowing two runs over five innings in a win over these very Twins last Friday. Now that Singer is on the road though, I think the rookie takes a predictable step back here, especially now that the Twins' have had a look at him.

The pick: Randy Dobnak (3-1, 0.90) has so far been "lights out" for the Twins, most recently allowing one run in a win over Milwaukee. Are these numbers sustainable? Dobnak is throwing well right now, but regression also seems imminent to me and I expect that downward trend to start tonight. Additionally note that the Twins have seen the total go over the number in eight of their last 11 home games after two or more straight "unders." This number is a little low.

This is a 10* ULTIMATE SLUG-FEST on the OVER Royals/Twins.