The set-up: The Padres held on for a 6-4 win in Texas last night and I like them to do it again here at home. San Diego got out to a hot start, but a recent scuffling stretch will have it completely focused on the task at hand tonight. The visitors hand the ball to Lance Lynn (3-0, 1.11 ERA) who gave up two runs off two hits over nine innings in a complete game win over the Rockies on Friday. Regression is imminent at some point for Lynn and I think that time is now.

The pick: Chris Paddack (2-2, 4.91) is looking to bounce back here after getting shelled for six runs by the Dodgers over four frames in his last start. While Paddack is 0-1 with a 9.00 ERA on the road, he's 2-1 with a 3.14 ERA at home. Lynn's numbers are unsustainable, expect that regression tonight. Lay the price.

This is a 10* ELITE OF THE ELITE on the San Diego Padres.