The set-up: Indiana played very well up until this point, but Miami's defense has so far been suprisingly good. That said, I'm now confident that that trend will end here finally. Indiana has now seen the total go under the number in five straight, including in both of these playoff games. The Heat have seen the total dip under in four of their last five. I thought the Pacers would have done much better against Miami, at least splitting out by this point. The Pacers are going to have to be the aggressors throughout again obviously. I'll point out as well that Indiana has seen the total go OVER the number in seven of its last ten after back-to-back UNDERS in the playoffs.

The pick: I'll admit now, Jimmy Butler and the Heat are the tougher dog in this fight, but he'll be nervous here not to let his younger teammates have any sort of a letdown. I finally expect a wide open, faster-paced OVER in Game 3!

This is a 10* TOTAL OF THE YEAR on the OVER Pacers/Heat.