The set-up: I think that Game 1 of this series will be a very defensive affair, with each team trying to establish itself and dictate the tempo. I don't think there's going to be any "feeling out" period as I expect each to play highly aggressive on the defensive end to try and send an early message. The Bucks are much more skilled in guarding the perimeter than the Pacers, so the Heat's three-point advantage it had in its last series is going to be nullified for the most part.

The pick: Miami played great defense in its opening round as well, holding the Pacers to just 100.8 PPG. Milwaukee also looked stout defensively in its first round win, holding the Magic to an average of 107 PPG. This number is high.

The is a 10* TOTAL OF THE WEEK on the UNDER Heat/Bucks.