The set-up: I had a play on the "over" in Game 4 and while that came up short, so too did the Nuggets. Denver was down 3-1 to the Jazz in its opening round series, before then posting three straight victories. Anything is possible, but the likliehood of that happening again is very slim. I don't think it's going to happen and Denver may well even lose this game outright, but I absolutely expect the Nuggets to fight hard, risking life and limb today to try and stay alive. LA has gotten fantastic and new flawless play from everyone over the last two games and I think its poised for a bit of a mental "letdown" in Game 5.

The pick: Additionally note that the Nuggets are 7-2 ATS in their last nine after being held to 88 points or less in a loss in their previous outing. I expect Denver to push the pace and to at the very least, keep this one close until the final moments. Grab the points.

This is a 10* PLAY-BOOK on the Denver Nuggets.