The set-up: Yes, the Bills lost terribly on Tuesday night in Tennessee. Previous to that Buffalo had gone 4-0. The scheduling of that game though likely played havoc with the Bill chemistry and I expect a much better performance here at home on Monday night. The Chiefs looked pretty darn ordinary in their home loss last time out. Both teams sport similar numbers, both offensively and defensively, but I believe that this one sets up well from a situational stand point for the home side. KC is in Denver next weekend, while the Bills are at the Jets.

The pick: The numbers/stats are working in our favor as well, as note that Buffalo is 7-2 ATS in its last nine conference home games as a 4-points or greater underdog. I think this one comes down to whichever of these two hungry teams has its hands on the ball last. I'm grabbing the points.

This is a 10* ELITE OF THE ELITE on the Buffalo Bills.