The set-up: Nevada is 4-0, while New Mexico is 0-2. Nevada averages 397 yards passing in the early going, but after four straight victories, I expect the Wolf Pack to come out a bit complacent vs. the lowly Lobos. New Mexico also plays with revenge here after losing this game 21-0 last season. New Mexico's defense has looked poor, but its offense has been decent. This opens the back door in the second half for a solid cover here from the home side.

The picks: New Mexico is also 7-2 ATS in its last nine after back-to-back losses, while Nevada is just 2-6 ATS in its last eight after three or more SU victories. A great situational play here, no outright, but closer than expected. Grab the points.

This is an 8* DESTRUCTION on New Mexico.