The set-up: I played this game early and have a very good number, but regardless, I love this play to fall well below the posted number once it's all said and done. For the most part I base my O/U picks on "situations" and "trends" (in every major North American sport.) The 49ers are essentially playing for the playoff lives here and clearly the last thing they can do is turn this into a "track meet" and expect to hang with the high-flying Saints. New Orleans on the other hand comes in off its sixth straight win, including a blowout victory over rival Tampa last weekend, so this sets up as a letdown spot for the home side.

The picks: San Francisco's strength remains its defense, but New Orleans' unit is definitely underrated (additionally note that NO has seen the total go "under" the number in nine of its last 14 after five or more SU victories in a row.) For all the reasons above, look for this total to stay "under" at the end of the night.

This is a 9* TOTAL PLAY-BOOK on the UNDER 49ers/Saints.