The set-up: This is an important divisional matchup. Baltimore crushed the Browns 38-6 at home in Week 1 and I'm expecting a similar final combined score here as well. Cleveland is coming off its fourth straight win, a 41-35 victory over Tennessee. Baltimore won 34-17 over the Cowboys. Baltimore averages 26.3 PPG and it allows just 19.3. The Browns averages 25.5 PPG, and they allow 26.8. Both teams can score, as they combine for 52 points, a figure which would push this total "over" the posted number. Both teams are decent defensively, as they combined to allow just 44 PPG. With the season winding down and so much on the line though, this one has the feel of a playoff game to me, where every inch is going to be contested. Where the game is decided in the trenches and by field position. This one has the feel of a "chess match," rather than a run and gun "shootout."

The pick: The numbers/trends support this theory as well, as note that the total has gone "under" in six of the Ravens last eight on the road. It's also gone "under" in six of these teams last eight vs. each other. A great time to pull the trigger on this situational totals play. This number is a tad high in my opinion.

This is a 10* AFC NORTH TOTAL OF THE YEAR on the UNDER Ravens/Browns.