The set-up: App State has closed out each of the last five years with a Bowl win and it's heavily favored to do so again on Monday afternoon. The Mountaineers finished 8-3 this season after a 34-26 win over Georgia Southern last week. UNT is 4-5, most recently entering off a 45-43 shootout victory over UTEP on Friday. While each team just finished playing to a higher-scoring victory, I think this Bowl contest at a weird time of the day and with little time to prepare, definitely sets up as a lower-scoring battle, rather than a high-scoring shootout. App State averages 31.8 PPG and it allows just 19.3. UNT averaged 35.1 PPG, while allowing 41.3.

The pick: The Mountaineers are in no fear of losing this game outright and I don't expect them to run up the score either. App State is going to run the ball and control the clock as it looks to close out this difficult campaign with one more victory. I think UNT will struggle to move the ball in the second half of this game and that'll help in contributing to push this total "under" once it's all said and done.

This is a 10* play on the UNDER App State/UNT.