The set-up: I'm primarily a situational handicapper and I think this one sets up well for the home side to pull off the minor upset at home this weekend. The Raiders are in "do or die" mode, as a loss here will eliminate them from contention. Miami also needs victories to keep its playoff hopes alive, but I think that's asking a lot of this young team on the road today, especially with a rookie QB. Derek Carr and the Raiders have a capable offense and I expect to see Gruden have his team prepared today.

The pick: I'll point out as well that Las Vegas is 7-2 ATS in its last nine home games as an underdog in the +2.5 to +4.5 points range. I like the desperate home side to dig deep and deliver on Saturday night.

This is a 10* GAME OF THE WEEK on the Las Vegas Raiders.