The set-up: These teams played on Thursday night and the undermanned Rockets scored the 109-105 victory. Both teams have been playing to several "unders" of late, and that's definitely helped in driving this number lower than it normally would be in my opinion. The value now finally swings the other way here, as I expect the Spurs to push the pace here as they look to avenge the loss on Thursday.

The pick: Note as well that San Antonio has seen the total soar "over" the number in ten of its last 14 after scoring 105 points or less in a SU/ATS home loss to an opponent in its last outing. The Rockets are going through player changes, but as I said, I'm expecting more of a "shootout" than defensive affair in these team's second matchup in as many days. This total is a little low.

This is a 10* SOUTHWEST TOTAL OF THE YEAR on the OVER Rockets/Spurs.