The set-up: Outright win? I'm not predicting that. But I do think the stage is set for a much more competitive battle than what this spread would suggest. Houston is 15-1 overall and 10-1 in AAC action. The Cougars have won eight in a row. Winning can lead to complacency, especially among college athletes. East Carolina enters under the radar and hungry to break out of a six-game slide, most recently falling to Tulsa 77-68. Houston's a good team, most recently beating SMU 70-48. With a week off before a contest at USF though, I think the Cougars will come out flat in the second half as they get caught looking ahead. They're in no fear of actually losing this game outright, but I also don't think they'll run up this score, instead leaving the back door open for a nice cover for the hungry home side.

The pick: ECU average 61 PPG and it concedes 69.3. Hence its poor overall record. The Pirates though are 7-2 ATS in their last nine home games as an underdog in the +15.5 to +17.5 points range and as stated, they're clearlier the "hungrier" dog in this fight. I expect Houston to indeed get caught looking ahead here. No upset, but tighter than what this spread would suggest. Grab the points.

This is a 10* GAME OF THE MONTH on East Carolina.