The set-up: Both teams have been playing to plenty of "overs" of late and I now think that this O/U line is a bit too high. North Kentucky has seen the total go "over" in six straight, while Wisconsin Green Bay has seen the total go "over" in five straight (that was after seeing it go "under" in five straight.) The Phoenix average 71.4 PPG, while UNK averages 71.1. When you add those two figures up, we land right on this posted number essentially. So why is today's going "under?"

The pick: Northern Kentucky is locked into third spot in the conference right now, while Green Bay is near the bottom. However, not only do I strongly feel that this O/U line is inflated, but note that UNK has seen the total go "under" in eight of its last 11 road games after two more straight ATS covers in a row, while Wisconsin Green Bay has seen the total dip below in 14 of its last 20 home games after playing to five or more straight "overs" in a row. I think the home side plays UNK tough here at home and I expect that to result finally in a lower-scoring "under."

This is a 10* Horizon League TOTAL OF THE MONTH on the UNDER UNK/Green Bay.