The set-up: Denver is coming off a 123-106 home win over Miami. With a couple nights off after this before a home game vs. the Grizzlies, there's no need for the visiting side to try and run up this score. Houston isn't going to win this game with its great defensive play, so the last thing the Nuggets want to do, especially without offensive standout Jamal Murray in the line-up, is to turn this into a track-meet with Houston.

The pick: HOuston has lost nine of ten and four in a row, but note that it's seen the total dip "under" the number in eight of its last 11 after three or more straight SU/ATS losses in a row. When you add it all up, I expect a more methodical pace from Denver here, one which will help in driving this total "under" once it's all said and done.

This is a 10* TOTAL DESTRUCTION on the UNDER Nuggets/Rockets.