The set-up: Aaron Nola is a much better pitcher at home than he is on the road. That's been the case throughout his career. The Phillies play much better at home also. Nola is 3-3 with a 3.64 ERA overall. He's 1-3 with a 5.74 ERA on the road, but he's 2-0 with a 1.43 ERA at home.

The pick: Martin Perez (1-2, 3.40), comes in off six scoreless vs. the Angels. Perez has been great this year, but I think he's in the wrong place at the wrong time in this one. This price could/should in fact be higher, I'm laying it and expecting a rout.

This is a 10* ELITE OF THE ELITE on the Phillies.