Reds (Castillo) vs Indians (Hentges)

The hard-charging and hard hitting Reds, 8-2 in their last ten games are in Cleveland today. The Indians are off a win, but at 4-6, just treading water at the moment. With solid management the Indians always seem to me to be a team that hits above its weight, but with Hentges on the mound they will have to get the bats to work. Hentges is a rookie ‘sometimes-starter’ with poor stats (0-4, 7.86). He won’t stay long in the game and will need support from a bullpen that has been very good in their last seven games.

The Reds have Castillo on the mound. Looking at his record (6-10, 4.09) he doesn’t look impressive but in this case, the numbers don’t tell the true picture. Castillo has been solid through July and August, and 3-0 with 19 innings pitched and 5 runs allowed in his last 3 starts. The Reds bullpen did receive a bit of support at the deadline but is still very unimpressive. They do have a very good road record and are very effective against left-handed starters. The Reds, as a team, score a lot of runs but they also allow allow a lot of runs as well. The Indians haven’t been high scoring of late but may have success against the Reds’ relievers.

Cincinnati is a large favorite, but taking the spread, only a small one. I think they are good for the extra runs. Take the Reds -1.5.