Reds (Gutierrez, 9-6, 4.17) vs Cubs (Mills, 6-6, 4.25)

Before their loss last night, the lowly Cubs had won 7 straight, while the Reds, still in the hunt for a wild card berth, are 3-7. The Reds starters have been solid but their bullpen has floundered and their usually potent offense is struggling. In fact, the light-hitting Cubs have outslugged the Reds significantly in the last two weeks. For most of the season the Reds starter Vlad Gutierrez would be just what was ordered for a turnaround, but after a very good run, he has had two rough and short outings. Tired arm or just a bump in the road?

Alec Mills starts for the Cubs. Except for a rough time three starts ago, Mills has been consistent. He beat the White Sox two starts back with a fine 8+ innings of shutout ball, and has been solid at home.

The Cubs’ bullpen, much to most peoples’ surprise, has been absolutely spectacular of late with an ERA of 1.05 in their last 7 games. The Reds’ pen has been a sore point all season and is 5.96 ERA over the last 7 games.

The Cubs are much better as a home team, at 38-32. The Reds are usually a good road team, but are 2-5 lately. The big question today concerns Gutierrez. He is a rookie with 18 starts already and has pitched just under 100 innings to date. I am not looking for him to bounce back today. Between Vlad’s health, and the Cubs’ and Reds’ respective bullpens I am taking the underdog Cubs to win today.